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Weekend Box Office: TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR First Concert Film to Lead Twice, Fending Off KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

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Courtesy AMC; Photo by Melinda Sue Gordon, Courtes Paramount, Apple

#1 = Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

In her 2019 songThe Man,” Taylor Swift name-checked Leonardo DiCaprio: “And they would toast to me, oh / Let the players play / I’d be just like Leo / In Saint-Tropez.” At this weekend’s box office, she wasn’t “just like Leo”—she beat him.

Last weekend, the AMC Theatres Distribution/Variance Films concert documentary event cinema release debuted to $92.8M, becoming the top concert film of all time after just its opening weekend.

It also marked the:

  • #86 opening weekend of all time
  • #7 opening of 2023 so far
  • #2 October opening ever, at -3% behind 2019’s Joker with $96.2M

Now in its sophomore frame, Eras declined -67% to $31.0M, repeating in first place.

While concert films have previously come in at number one, this marks the first time one has ever done so far two weekends in a row.

After earning the #86 opening weekend all time, Eras‘ second weekend falls outside the top 100 sophomore frames ever.

Compared to the sophomore drops for other notable concert films, it falls steeper than:

  • 2009’s posthumous Michael Jackson film This Is It = -43%
  • 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never = -55%

Its drop is equal to:

  • 2008’s Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert = -67%

Still, Swift’s sophomore frame comes in higher than the opening frame for both Jackson with $23.2M and Bieber with $29.5M. It’s running neck-and-neck with the opening for Cyrus at $31.7M.

#2 = Killers of the Flower Moon

The historical drama from Apple Studios, distributed to Paramount, came in second place with a $23M start.

Remember, though, that this is the kind of film where grosses are usually more backloaded in the weeks to come, rather than frontloaded at the start.

Still, the film’s opening weekend alone roughly matches the entire domestic gross for director Martin Scorsese’s last theatrical release: 2016’s Silence with $23.7M.

Compared to the three most recent Scorsese + DiCaprio collaborations, Moon opens:

  • -14% below 2006’s The Departed: $26.8M
  • -44% below 2010’s Shutter Island: $41.0M
  • +25 above 2013’s The Wolf of Wall Street with $18.4M, though its debut weekend was deflated after opening midweek on a Wednesday

Compared to the wide openings for other DiCaprio films from the past dozen years, Moon also starts:

  • -23% below 2012’s Django Unchained: $30.1M
  • -42% below 2016’s The Revenant: $39.8M
  • -44% below 2019’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: $41.0M
  • -54% below 2013’s The Great Gatsby: $50.0M

Versus some other comparable adult-leaning dramas released around this time or year over the past decade, it opens:

  • -27% below 2019’s Ford v. Ferrari: $31.4M
  • -10% below 2013’s Captain Phillips: $25.7M
  • +59% above 2021’s House of Gucci: $14.4M

Audience demographics

The estimated audience for Moon was:

  • 62% male and 56% ages 30+
  • 60% white and 7% Native American, much higher than Native Americans’ 1.3% of the U.S. population
  • Gave the film an “A-” CinemaScore

Overseas / global

Moon opened with $21M overseas and $44M globally, or 47% overseas.

Top five market totals to date are:

  1. U.K. $3.0M
  2. France: $2.6M
  3. Germany: $1.6M
  4. Australia: $1.4M
  5. Spain: $1.3M

#3 = The Exorcist: Believer

Last weekend, Universal’s horror sequel fell a steep -59%, more than double the percentage drop for the other biggest horror film in the marketplace: Saw X at -28%.

Now in its third frame, Believer falls a milder -49% to $5.6M and third place.

After 17 days, it’s earned $54.2M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running +45% ahead of 2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning with $37,158,508, slightly worse than its +46% opening.

Believer is also now running below some other post-pandemic horror films through the equivalent point in release, despite opening higher:

  • Down less than -1% below April’s Evil Dead Rise, after opening +8%
  • -13% below 2022’s The Black Phone, after opening +12%
  • -24% below 2022’s Smile, after opening +17%

Overseas / global

This weekend, Believer fell -51% in overseas holdover markets, slightly steeper than its -49% domestic drop.

It’s earned $53.3M overseas and $107.5M globally, or 49% overseas.

Top five overseas market totals to date are:

  1. Mexico: $8.2M
  2. U.K.: $5.6M
  3. France: $3.1M
  4. Spain: $3.0M
  5. Italy: $2.9M

Major markets still to release include Japan.

#4 = Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Now in its fourth frame, Paramount’s animated sequel falls only -35% to $4.4M and fourth place.

After 24 days, Mighty has earned $56.0M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running better than both its predecessor and the other recent dog-themed family comedy—though a live-action/animation hybrid—to hit the market. 

  • +61% above 2021’s Paw Patrol: The Movie with $34.7M, worse than its +73% opening
  • +26% above 2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog with $44.3M

(Both films opened day-and-date, simultaneously in cinemas and on streaming on Paramount+–plus Clifford opened midweek on a Wednesday.)

Overseas / global

This weekend, Mighty fell -42% in overseas holdover markets, steeper than its -35% domestic drop.

It’s earned $92.3M overseas and $148.4M globally, or 62% from overseas.

This weekend, it exceeds the global total for its 2021 predecessor. For comparison, its 2021 predecessor finished with $104.2M overseas and $144.3M globally, or 72% from overseas.

The sequel’s top five market totals to date are:

  1. China: $15.8M
  2. Germany: $8.1M
  3. Mexico: $6.3M
  4. France: $6.4M
  5. U.K.: $5.6M

Major markets still to release include Japan.

#5 = The Nightmare Before Christmas (30th anniversary)

In its opening frame, Disney’s re-release of 1993’s animated dark comedy musical horror classic bowed to a $4.1M debut in fifth place.

For comparison, earlier this month Disney re-released another family-friendly horror movie to coincide with its 30th anniversary: 1993’s Hocus Pocus. Nightmare’s $4.1M after a single frame almost equals Hocus Pocus‘ $4.3M total after three.

#6 = Saw X

Compared to the other biggest horror film currently in the marketplace, The Exorcist: Believer, last weekend Lionsgate’s horror sequel experienced less than half the percentage drop: -28% versus -59%.

Now in its fourth frame, Lionsgate’s horror sequel saws off only -37% to $3.5M and sixth place.

While the gap narrows somewhat, this weekend it still drops more mildly than its main horror competition: -37% versus -49%.

After 24 days, this tenth Saw installment has earned $47.2M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running below 2004’s original Saw, despite opening above it:

  • -6% below 2004’s original Saw with $50.3M, worse than its +0.1% opening
  • 2.16x above 2021’s ninth installment Spiral with $21.8M, slightly better than its 2.09x opening
  • +29% above 2017’s eighth installment Jigsaw with $36.4M, better than its +10% opening


Weekend comparisons

Total box office this weekend came in around $79.1M.

Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Weekend

Total

This weekend is:

Leader

Last weekend

$132.4M

-40%

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour = $92.8M

Same weekend in 2022

$113.6M

-30%

Black Adam: $67.0M

Same weekend in 2019

$137.7M

-42%

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil = $36.9M

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office stands around $7.43B.

Through the equivalent point, here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Year

YTD total

2023 YTD now:

After last weekend:

Trend

2022

$5.88B

+26.4%

+26.5%

Down

2019

$9.02B

-17.5%

-17.1%

Down

Top distributors

Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:

  1. Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $1.71B
  2. Universal + Focus Features: $1.60B
  3. Warner Bros.: $1.14B
  4. Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll: $865.2M
  5. Paramount: $787.0M

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

Title  Estimated weekend  % change Locations Location change Average  Total  Weekend Distributor
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $31,000,000 -67% 3,855   $8,042 $129,788,501 2 AMC Theatres Distribution + Variance
Killers of the Flower Moon $23,000,000   3,628   $6,340 $23,000,000 1 Paramount
The Exorcist: Believer $5,600,000 -49% 3,323 -361 $1,685 $54,161,950 3 Universal
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie $4,450,000 -35% 3,364 -343 $1,323 $56,064,127 4 Paramount
The Nightmare Before Christmas $4,100,000   1,650   $2,485 $4,100,000   Disney
Saw X $3,585,000 -37% 2,756 -302 $1,301 $47,234,877 4 Lionsgate
The Creator $2,600,000 -40% 2,490 -470 $1,044 $36,759,287 4 20th Century Studios [Disney]
A Haunting in Venice $1,100,000 -44% 1,600 -690 $688 $40,908,593 6 20th Century Studios [Disney]
The Nun II $887,000 -45% 1,364 -764 $650 $85,308,071 7 Warner Bros.
Hocus Pocus $600,000 -31% 1,375 -55 $436 $48,400,350   Disney
The Equalizer 3 $480,000 -49% 1,083 -441 $443 $91,520,023 8 Sony Pictures
Dicks: The Musical $377,653 299% 345 330 $1,095 $826,388 3 A24
Dumb Money $275,000 -69% 1,167 -1,109 $236 $13,541,013 6 Sony Pictures
Barbie $260,000 -45% 417 -255 $624 $635,680,031 14 Warner Bros.
Oppenheimer $179,000 -43% 213 -100 $840 $324,042,625 14 Universal
Anatomy of a Fall $154,399 31% 14 9 $11,029 $333,891 2 Neon
Expend4bles $110,000 -70% 407 -676 $270 $16,625,031 5 Lionsgate
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $105,000 -64% 303 -307 $347 $28,420,165 7 Focus Features [Universal]
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $87,000 -62% 526 102 $165 $118,566,545 12 Paramount
Haunted Mansion $77,000 4% 110 -15 $700 $67,622,392 13 Disney
Stop Making Sense $61,915 -64% 89 -169 $696 $4,721,333   Cinecom
Talk To Me $30,829 -43% 25 -35 $1,233 $48,249,468 13 A24
The Royal Hotel $29,000 -78% 90 -183 $322 $766,453 3 Neon
Common Ground $18,799 226% 19 13 $989 $138,552 4 Area 23a
Divinity $9,944 94% 3 2 $3,315 $16,170 2 Utopia
Another Body $5,573   1   $5,573 $5,573 1 Utopia

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